Saturday, June 17, 2006

You don't need a pair of eyes to see how bad they are,Just look at the numbers!

I found this link on the internet of someone named John Beamer:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/6/10/5206/85178#readmore

Those of us who watch or listen to the Cubs on any kind of regular basis weren't really shocked by this:

"Which team on the senior circuit has the the worst offense? The Marlins? The Pirates? No -- you'd be wrong on both counts. Try Dusty's dream team: the inimitable Cubs. You might think that the basis for this less than Einsteinian conclusion would be ocular judgment. Actually it is not. It is an analysis of cumulative VORP over the first third of the season. "

Personally I just used ocular judgment. But I also came to the same conclusion.

"I told you that you'd be shocked."

Not really.

"Let's take some time to put the Cubs' 5.6 VORP in to a little perspective. VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, essentially measures run value per out over and above a marginal level. As indicated in the nomenclature of the statistic this marginal point is replacement. Replacement is usually defined as a AAAA level player, who is available for the major league minimum salary. So what a loose interpretation of VORP is telling us is that if we were to dump the Cubs' starting line-up and call-up a bunch of minor league talent then the Cubs would only be 6 runs, or half a win, worse off!"

I've seen or heard enough 3 up, 3 down innings to be convinced of this. But let's go on:

"Still 10.1 is a terrible score and the reason for this is that there are a bunch of everyday players who are nothing short of atrocious."

No doubt about that.


"It is tough to single out any of the stragglers but on a second glance one entry is particulalry egregious. I present to you Juan D'Vaughn Pierre, who this year is earning an eye-boggling $5.75 million. Pierre has 268 plate appearances this season -- the most on the team -- and he has contributed a VORP of -6. That is $5.75 million for half a loss; so unless Pierre becomes Andruw Jones and more with the glove it is an utter waste of money (and for those who are wondering FRAA places Pierre as average with the leather)."

Good thing we only traded 3 of our top pitching prospects for Juan 4-3erre.

"Stars such as Neifi Perez, Jerry Hairston and Henry Blaco all contribute negatively to the team. Come on, small sample size aside, even Greg Maddux has an offensive VORP of 1 this season!
What about when we include pitching?"

I was going to fix Blaco to Blanco, but Blaco describes it better. Sadly in the Dusty/Hendry mindset, these 3 guys are stars.

"Adding them together and the Cubs are an astonishing 40 points of VORP shy of the second worst team in the NL. On a VORP per $ payroll basis the Cubs are comfortably bottom. Vive l'offense de Cubs!"

Now wait a cotton-pickin minute. $95 million don't go as far as it used to.

"Yeah, Derrek Lee leads the Cubs in cumulative pNRAA. Did I mention he has fewer plate appearances than Neifi Perez has outs? And for the final kick to the cranium, the Cubs Team EqA is only .237; .007 above replacement level...as a team. I don't think a healthy Kerry Wood and Mark Prior will do much good if they need to win 2-1 everytime."

That's OK. They won't be healthy. At least not for long.

Anyway, nice analysis John! Assuming you are a Cub fan, it must have been very painful to look at.

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